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Iran Deal: Poll Results

What do Americans, American Jews, Israelis, and Iranians think of the Iran nuclear deal?

[Note: Included here are only polls from credible sources, whose surveys were fielded after the announcement of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on July 14. The name of the polling organization and, if applicable, its sponsor are listed in bold. Additional reports about the same poll are batched as bullet points.]

After Nuclear Deal, U.S. Views of Iran Remain Dismal by Andrew Dugan, Gallup, February 17, 2016

  • 14% of Americans have a favorable view of Iran
  • 30% of Americans approve; 57% disapprove of the Iran nuclear deal
  • 9% of Republicans approve of deal versus 51% of Democrats

Poll: Americans skeptical Iran adhere to nuclear deal, CNN, September 13, 2015 (data)

A new CNN/ORC poll finds 59% disapprove of the way Obama is handling the U.S. relationship with Iran, and about half would have preferred Congress reject the deal. Few believe Iran will abide by its terms, and a growing number consider the country a serious threat to the U.S.

Most Think Iran Unlikely to Honor Nuclear Weapons Deal, Rassumssen Reports, September 10, 2015 (Survey conducted September 8-9 among likely U.S. voters.)

62% of respondents think Iran is unlikely to uphold its end of the deal; 23% believe the deal will make the Middle East safer; 40% say it will put the region more at risk.

Iranians back nuclear deal, but expect too much by AFP, September 9, 2015 (cites a study by the University of Maryland and Toronto-based IranPoll.com)

Most Iranians [76%] back the nuclear deal Tehran signed with world powers, but partly because they wrongly believe it marks an immediate end to all US sanctions.

Support for Iran Nuclear Agreement Falls, Pew Research Center, September 8, 2015

As Congress prepares to vote on the Iran nuclear agreement, public support for the deal has declined. Currently, just 21% approve of the agreement on Iran’s nuclear program reached between the United States, Iran and other nations. Nearly half (49%) disapprove of the agreement.

Caddell Associates/McLaughlin & Associates for Secure America Now (opposed to the deal), September 2-3, 2015: 69% of likely voters believe Congress should vote on Iran deal. 88% of respondents (including 79% of Democrats) say Congress should not approve a deal that allows Iran to inspect their own sites.

Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania Voters Back Limits On Coal 2-1, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds; Voters In Each State Oppose Iran Nuke Deal 2-1Quinnipiac University, August 24, 2015: Voters in swing states Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania reject the proposed deal with Iran by more than 2-to-1 (61-25 in Florida, 58-4 in Ohio, and 61-26 in Pennsylvania), and by similar margins believe that “the deal would make the world less safe rather than safer.”

AJC 2015 Survey of American Jews: Conducted August 7-22, 2015 by GfK KnowledgePanel (data)

  • A clear majority of American Jews lack confidence in the deal.
  • 51 percent of total respondents approve of the deal and 47 percent disapprove
  • Those who consider being Jewish very important, those who view caring about Israel as a key part of their Jewish identity, and those belonging to the traditional denominations of Judaism are far more likely to oppose the deal than others

CNN/ORC Poll: Most Americans want Congress to reject Iran deal , 2015 (full data here)

Obama Gets Low Marks for His Handling of Iran by Justin McCarthy, Gallup, August 13, 2015

Iran deal and Clinton emails, Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) for Fox News, August 11-13, 2015: By a 2-to-1 margin, registered American voters (with a plurality identifying as Democrats) would reject the nuclear deal with Iran; by 4-to-1, they don’t trust Iran (questions #32-33).

New York City Voters Oppose Iran Nuclear Pact, Quinnipiac University, August 11, 2015: “New York City voters oppose 43 – 36 percent the proposed nuclear agreement with Iran, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Jewish voters oppose the proposed pact 53 – 33 percent.”

National: Iran got better end of deal, Monmouth University, August 10, 2015: 27% of Americans say Congress should approve the deal and 32% say it should not

McKeon & Associates for Citizens for a Safe Middle East (opponents of the deal): Iran Deal: Jews now oppose 2-to-1, youth 4-.to-1 by Joel B. Pollak, Breitbart, August 7, 2015

American Voters Oppose Iran Deal 2-1, Quinnipiac University, August 3, 2015

Why the different results between polls? It often comes down to differences in polling questions, including leading questions. To take an extreme case (exaggerated to make the point; these are not actual polling questions),“Do you support the deal to block Iran’s path to a nuclear weapon?” will elicit very different responses from “Do you support the deal to fund Iranian terrorism and repression?”

CNN/ORC Poll: Majority wants Congress to reject Iran deal CNN, July 28, 2015 (full data here)

U.S. National Registered Voter Survey on Iran Nuclear Deal, Olive Tree Strategies for The Israel Project, July 22-24, 2015 (data, charts)

American Jews want Congress to approve the Iran deal, LA Jewish Journal, July 23, 2015

Pew Research Center: Iran Nuclear Agreement Meets With Public Skepticism; Little Confidence in Iran’s Leaders to Live Up to Deal, July 21, 2015

GBA Strategies for J Street (supporter of the deal): July 21-23, 2015 (data)

YouGov: Americans tend to favor Iran deal, despite serious doubts, July 17, 2015

 


Israeli Polls

Israel Hayom: Most Israelis think Israel needs to continue fighting Iran nuclear deal, July 31, 2015: 76% of Jewish Israelis believe Israel should continue fighting against the Iran nuclear deal, while 15% think Israel should not fight it.

Capital Politics for The Jerusalem Post and Maariv Hashavua, 78% of Jewish Israelis say Iran deal endangers country, July 17, 2015: 71% say it would bring Iran closer to a military nuclear capability; 51% say Prime Minister Netanyahu should use all possible tools to persuade Congress to vote against the deal.

Have I missed any sources? Please let me know!

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